Closer to Midnight: the Return to a Nuclear Arms Race
Virtual Briefing Series
Wednesday, February 19th, 2025 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET
Humanity stands closer than ever to catastrophe, warn the experts behind the Doomsday Clock. The tracker of human-caused destruction ticked one second closer to midnight last month, the closest it has ever been in its nearly eight-decade history. The shift reflects growing nuclear tensions, particularly the impending expiration of the New START treaty in 2026, which threatens to eliminate the last remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia. With little indication that either side is willing to extend it, the global nuclear balance grows more precarious. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its warhead stockpile, while North Korea and Iran continue advancing their nuclear programs. As geopolitical tensions escalate, are we witnessing the start of a new nuclear arms race? What risks does this pose for global security, and are there any political openings to establish new arms control frameworks?
Join us on Wednesday, February 19th, 2025, from 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET for a critical discussion on the escalating risks of nuclear proliferation and the future of arms control, featuring Alexandra Bell, President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Ambassador Steven Pifer, affiliate of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Dr. Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and nonresident researcher at the Science and Global Security Program of Princeton University. This conversation will examine the current state of nuclear security, explore diplomatic and policy options to prevent escalation, and assess whether new agreements or frameworks can reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.
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SPEAKERS:
Alexandra Bell
Alexandra Bell is the president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. A noted policy expert and former diplomat, she oversees the Bulletin’s publishing programs, management of the Doomsday Clock, and a growing set of activities around nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. Before joining the Bulletin, Alexandra Bell served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Affairs in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability (ADS) at the U.S. Department of State. Previously, she has worked at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and the Council for a Livable World, Ploughshares Fund, and the Center for American Progress.
Ambassador Steven Pifer
Steven Pifer is an affiliate of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation as well as a non-resident senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. His interests are nuclear arms control, Ukraine, Russia and European security.
A retired Foreign Service officer, Pifer’s more than 25 years with the State Department included assignments as deputy assistant secretary of state with responsibilities for Russia and Ukraine, ambassador to Ukraine, and special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia on the National Security Council. He also served at the U.S. embassies in Warsaw, Moscow and London as well as with the U.S. delegation to the negotiation on intermediate-range nuclear forces in Geneva. From 2008 to 2017, he was a resident scholar at the Brookings Institution, and he was a William Perry fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation from 2018 to 2022.
Dr. Tong Zhao
Tong Zhao is a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China, Carnegie’s East Asia-based research center on contemporary China. Formerly based in Beijing, he now conducts research in Washington on strategic security issues, such as nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, regional security issues in Asia Pacific, and China’s security and foreign policy.
He is also a nonresident researcher at the Science and Global Security Program of Princeton University, an associate editor of the journal Science & Global Security, and a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He was a virtual visiting research fellow at the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the Sandia National Laboratories, a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at Harvard University, a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum, and worked for the Office of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Government of Beijing Municipality.
He holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as an MA in international relations and a BS in physics from Tsinghua University. He is the author of “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security”, “Tides of Change: China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability” and “Narrowing the U.S.-China Gap on Missile Defense: How to Help Forestall a Nuclear Arms Race.” He has published in Arms Control Today, Asian Security, The Atlantic, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, New York Times, War on the Rocks, and Politico, among others.
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